Productivity and Firm Dynamics over the Business Cycle

The paper studies the effects of technology shocks on the creation and destruction of firms. Using US data and a VAR model the paper finds Schumpeterian creative destruction for investment-specific technology shocks. A positive investment-specific technology shock increases the number of firms opening, but also leads to a higher number of firms closing. In contrast, labour-neutral technology shocks also benefit old firms. An increase in overall productivity leads to an increase in the number of new firms and a drop in the number of failures. Both margins contribute to an increase in the number of firms in the economy. A medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous entry and exit augmented small entry size of firms, high exit rate of new firms and positive net present value is able to capture these stylised facts.

Productivity and Firm Dynamics over the Business Cycle

Abraham Assefa
Darya Lapitskaya
Lenno Uusküla
working paper 16/2022